Bitcoin’s prolonged bear market may be approaching its final stage, according to fresh assessments from Grayscale and The DeFi Report. Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl said the current downturn has not changed the firm’s expectation that Bitcoin adoption will increase over time, noting that prices have begun to stabilize. Pandl highlighted three long-term adoption drivers: unsustainable growth in US government debt, which raises inflation and currency depreciation risks and pushes investors toward scarce assets; the expansion of stablecoins and tokenization, which spreads blockchain infrastructure through financial services; and rising interest among younger investors, who increasingly treat digital assets as a standard portfolio component through tools including spot ETFs.
Pandl argued that the classic four-year halving cycle is insufficient for understanding Bitcoin’s future. Instead, he described the current period as a consolidation phase determined by macroeconomic conditions rather than a stage requiring a deeper cyclical decline. While he did not declare a new uptrend, he said price stabilization and continued expansion of the long-term investor base strengthen the view that the bear market may be entering its final stages.
Separately, The DeFi Report estimated that roughly 85% of the bear cycle is complete and that the remaining 15% depends on global macroeconomic developments. The firm’s on-chain cost basis analysis shows Bitcoin behaving similarly to previous cycle bases, while spot and futures trading volumes have dropped to their lowest levels since late 2019, indicating a “time-spread capitulation.” Miner asset sales and redirection of energy capacity toward AI firms were cited as additional market pressures. The report said a decline to the $55,000 “deep value” zone will depend on liquidity conditions, pointing to US 30-year Treasury yields above 5.2% at a 20-year high and a Federal Reserve bias toward higher rates as headwinds. It also highlighted covert liquidity measures by the US Treasury and Bank of Japan, described as “QE Light,” as well as a 15% rise in gold, suggesting investors are positioning against inflation and that similar liquidity could eventually flow into Bitcoin. On technicals, the 200-week moving average at $63,800 is a key threshold, with a monthly close above $68,700–$69,800 reinforcing a bottoming scenario.
