Bitcoin whipsawed between geopolitical pressure and short-term relief this week as conflicting reports surrounding US-Iran diplomacy and a reported UAE transfer of frozen Iranian assets moved both energy and crypto markets. The benchmark cryptocurrency dropped below $64,000 on Wednesday after Tehran denied agreeing to extend the 60-day US ceasefire framework, then recovered above $63,300 on Thursday amid unconfirmed reports that the United Arab Emirates had released billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets.
Diplomatic uncertainty remained a major driver. Iranian officials rejected claims that Washington and Tehran had agreed through mediators to extend the 60-day window from their June memorandum. A senior Iranian source said there was no period that began and therefore nothing to extend, accusing Washington of violating the interim agreement within 48 hours. The current negotiation window is due to expire on August 17, leaving only days for a broader deal covering Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions and freedom of navigation through the Gulf.
The Strait of Hormuz stayed central to the conflict. Commercial traffic remained far below pre-war levels, with only 14 ships crossing on Tuesday compared with more than 130 vessels per day before the war. Tehran said the route would remain restricted unless Washington met Iranian demands, including releasing frozen funds and adjusting US military measures. The standoff kept oil prices elevated earlier in the week, with West Texas Intermediate climbing more than 5%.
Bitcoin’s price action reflected the shifting risk backdrop. BTC traded near $63,314 on Wednesday after an intraday high around $64,298. Softer US July inflation at 3.4% year over year initially supported prices, but geopolitical uncertainty pushed Bitcoin back toward the lower end of its daily range. On Thursday, reports from The Hormuz Letter and other sources claimed the UAE released several billion dollars in Iranian assets, including about 1.5 tonnes of gold valued between $200 million and $283 million. UAE Royal Jet reportedly operated a Boeing 737-7KK that carried assets from Abu Dhabi to Iran on August 11 and 12, landing at Mehrabad Airport and Payam Airport.
Neither the UAE nor the United States confirmed the claims, and the UAE Foreign Ministry previously denied similar reports. US officials also rejected any side agreement involving frozen Iranian funds. Still, oil prices fell toward $81 per barrel, easing some inflation concerns and giving risk assets a short-term lift. Bitcoin gained about 1% and traded near $63,400 after four consecutive daily losses. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $61.16 million in net outflows on Wednesday, showing cautious institutional demand. Technical levels remained tight, with resistance near the 50-day EMA at $64,542, further resistance near $66,500, and support around $62,300. A break below that support could expose the July 1 yearly low near $57,800.
