Intuitive Machines (LUNR) posted record second-quarter revenue and a surging backlog, yet shares fell roughly 10% as results missed Wall Street expectations. Revenue reached $206.2 million, more than quadruple the $50.3 million from a year earlier, but below the roughly $223.8 million analysts expected. The net loss widened to $62.8 million, or $0.29 per Class A share, missing the consensus loss estimate of $0.09 by $0.20.
A key driver of the shortfall was a $14.7 million estimated-at-completion adjustment tied to the upcoming IM-4 lunar lander mission. Project modifications and client-requested scope changes pushed engineering costs higher and compressed margins, leading to a negative adjusted EBITDA of $13.8 million. Gross margin improved to 17.4%, but that was not enough to offset the headline miss. The company has now missed earnings estimates in most of its recent quarters, and the stock was already under pressure heading into the report.
Despite the quarterly disappointment, the company’s forward pipeline remains strong. Backlog hit a record $1.76 billion at the end of June, up from just $213.1 million at the end of 2025, driven by $920 million in second-quarter bookings and an additional $300 million of awards already booked in the third quarter. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $900 million to $1 billion and reiterated its target for positive adjusted EBITDA.
The strategic shift toward national security was pronounced: defense-related revenue jumped from 3% to 30% of total revenue year over year. Intuitive Machines secured a contract worth more than $600 million for three geostationary satellites and an award covering 18 spacecraft to support the AMDT3 Golden Dome missile-defense constellation, while NASA granted a sixth Commercial Lunar Payload Services mission. Wall Street consensus remains at Buy with a mean price target near $43, implying potential upside of more than 150% from current levels.
Technically, the stock is testing its 20-day moving average, with a decisive break below $14.20 expected to accelerate bearish momentum. The selloff is viewed by institutional consensus as a temporary operational hiccup rather than a fundamental breakdown, but the near-term tension remains between a disappointing quarter and an accelerating backlog.
