Analysts at ING and TD Securities are highlighting a more nuanced outlook for the Norwegian krone (NOK), with Norges Bank’s softer policy tone emerging as a key variable for the currency’s path against the euro.
ING maintains a bullish medium-term view on EUR/NOK, expecting the pair to decline gradually from the mid-11.60s toward 11.30, with support around 11.50 and resistance near 11.80. The bank argues that Norway’s robust fiscal position, supported by oil and gas revenues, and the eurozone’s structural economic challenges continue to favor the krone. However, ING cautions that dovish risks from Norges Bank—such as slower rate hikes or signals of future cuts—could narrow the krone’s yield advantage and trigger short-term depreciation.
TD Securities separately notes that Norges Bank has already softened its hawkish stance, signaling a less aggressive approach to monetary tightening. That shift may reduce the currency’s yield appeal and create downward pressure on the NOK, although the full impact will depend on upcoming inflation data, economic growth figures, and central bank communication.
Market participants are advised to monitor Norges Bank monetary policy meetings, eurozone inflation data, and global risk sentiment, as surprises in these areas could alter the EUR/NOK trajectory.
