Bitcoin entered August 15 under renewed selling pressure after breaking below $63,500, with BTC/USD trading near $62,850 and analysts warning that a loss of the daily trendline could accelerate declines. On August 14, BTC closed around $63,038, down 0.61%, and spot Bitcoin ETFs added to the bearish mood with $131.13 million in daily outflows on August 13, pushing weekly flows to negative $332.08 million.
The breakdown followed a notable shift in exchange flows. Around 228,000 BTC moved into Binance deposit addresses, a level analyst Anup Dhungana said has not been observed since the last cycle bottom. Analyst Ash Crypto pointed out that the last similar loss of Bitcoin's daily trendline preceded a 20% drop, a scenario that would place downside targets near $50,000 to $51,000.
Technical indicators show an oversold but still bearish setup. The fast RSI fell to 28.04, the MACD histogram is printing expanding red bars, and the CCI sits at -130.9, leaving room for a short-term bounce while keeping the broader structure weak. Key levels include immediate support at $62,000, psychological support at $60,000, and the June swing low near $57,758, with major resistance at $63,500 and $67,255.
A separate risk emerged around MSCI and Strategy. MSCI has reportedly revived a proposal that could remove Strategy and other companies from major global indexes under a new Non-Operating Companies classification. Bull Theory noted the same catalyst was linked to the October 10 crash, when Bitcoin dropped roughly $18,000 in one day. JPMorgan previously estimated about $8.8 billion in potential Strategy-related selling if the company were removed. Strategy currently holds 840,447 BTC, making any forced share-selling a potential indirect source of pressure on Bitcoin demand, though it does not mean that bitcoin would automatically be sold.
Longer-term cycle analysis from Ali Martinez places a potential Bitcoin bottom around October 6, 2026, with an accumulation range between $62,000 and $48,000. For the immediate session, a hold above $62,000 could support a relief move toward $63,500, while a confirmed break below $62,000 would expose $60,000 and the June low near $57,758.
