Michael Burry Doubles Down on Nebius Short as AI Cloud Revenue Jumps 454%

2 hour ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Burry's short highlights accounting risk, not demand weakness, in AI infrastructure valuations.
  • Depreciation at 45% of revenue reveals how accounting choices mask underlying profitability.
  • The AI infrastructure capex surge parallels crypto mining cycles, risking overcapacity and margin compression.

Nebius Group reported second-quarter revenue of $582.3 million, up 454% from $105.1 million a year earlier, as demand for AI cloud infrastructure accelerated. First-half revenue climbed 529% to $981.3 million from $156 million in the same period of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA improved to $236.2 million in Q2, reversing a $21 million loss recorded a year earlier, while the first-half adjusted net loss narrowed to $133.5 million from $175.2 million.

Yet the blowout quarter did not change Michael Burry’s view. The Scion Asset Management founder, known for predicting the 2008 housing collapse, added to his short position on the same day results dropped. Burry first disclosed the short on August 6 at around $212 per share; after the stock closed near $259 on August 12, his position moved underwater. He called Nebius “what the top of a boom looks like.”

Burry’s argument focuses on depreciation accounting rather than demand. He says AI infrastructure companies stretch the assumed useful life of chips that realistically cycle every two to three years, flattering profits. Nebius extended its server depreciation life from four years to five years at the start of 2026. In Q2, depreciation and amortization came in at $259.7 million, equal to 45% of revenue. On a GAAP basis, Nebius recorded a net loss of $190.4 million, while net income from continuing operations was reported at $190.4 million.

The company closed the quarter with $8 billion in cash and $2.2 billion in operating cash flow, while capital expenditures reached $5.7 billion, above analyst estimates of $4.7 billion. CEO Arkady Volozh said: “We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today.” Nebius also raised its 2026 contracted power target to 5 gigawatts from 4 gigawatts, and sold 12.7 million shares through June 30 at an average price of $223.60.

In addition, Nebius secured $775 million in July to support AI cloud expansion and plans to invest $2.3 billion in UK AI infrastructure, including three data centers with combined capacity of 65 megawatts by 2027. The company expects its wider AI cloud network to reach full maturity by October 31, 2030.

Burry also added to short positions in Micron and Oracle on August 12 and holds shorts in Nvidia, Palantir, Applied Materials, and Caterpillar. Peer AI infrastructure name CoreWeave rose more than 19% after raising annual forecasts. At around $259, Nebius trades at roughly 20 times this year’s guided revenue of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion, making pricing power the near-term test.

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