Prominent crypto analysts are coalescing around a similar near-term outlook: digital assets may need one more sharp decline before a sustainable bull cycle can begin.
Benjamin Cowen, in a new YouTube analysis, said Bitcoin is stuck in a low-volume range between roughly $62,000 and $63,000. He argued that declining social risk metrics and falling crypto content viewership signal fading market interest. According to Cowen, Bitcoin is trading between its 200-week moving average and a bear market resistance band, a setup that historically has resolved to the downside.
Cowen also highlighted the divergence between US stocks and crypto, with equities hitting fresh records while Bitcoin stagnates. He said a similar pattern occurred around the 2014 and 2018 US midterm elections and reiterated that Bitcoin tends to follow its own four-year cycle rather than stock market performance. He noted that 60-day volatility has dropped to 1.47%, and such compression has often preceded explosive moves. In his view, a final downward wave could reset on-chain indicators and mark a cycle bottom. He added that the market may be in the 10th month of an approximate 12-month bear phase.
Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat, offered a similar baseline. He said the fact that crypto is lagging record-setting technology stocks may be creating apathy, but that sentiment can be an early sign of a bottom. Farrell expects Bitcoin and the broader crypto market could suffer one more sharp drop before a sustained uptrend. He added that global liquidity conditions and rising US 10-year Treasury yields continue to pressure liquidity-sensitive assets such as crypto in the short term.
Farrell also noted that high Treasury issuance and higher long-term yields may reverse over the next three to six months. If regulators or central banks introduce liquidity-boosting measures, that could trigger a new bull run. On the altcoin side, he said a Solana governance proposal to reduce the network's inflation rate could reduce supply pressure and act as a meaningful catalyst for SOL if approved.
