Bitcoin short-term holders are carrying average unrealized losses of roughly 6%, according to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, even as the market shows no clear capitulation signals. Contributing analyst Axel Adler Jr. said the average cost basis for short-term holders is about $67,300, while Bitcoin is trading near $63,200. The Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) ratio is approximately 0.94 and has stayed below the 1.0 break-even level for 98 consecutive days. Meanwhile, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) sits at about 0.996, indicating selling at slight losses but not panic.
Adler cautioned that downside pressure could intensify if Bitcoin breaks below $59,300, potentially forcing short-term holders to cut losses and triggering a broader sell-off. Holding above that level could support consolidation. Investors are watching these on-chain metrics because short-term holders tend to react faster to price swings than long-term holders.
In a separate derivatives development, on-chain analyst The Data Nerd reported that whale address 0xf292 is nursing heavy losses on a CXMT short position. The whale is short 2.9 million CXMT tokens worth roughly $26.13 million, with an unrealized loss of about $7.26 million and cumulative funding fees of $3.82 million, bringing total losses above $11 million. The case highlights how funding fees can erode returns even when price action is not entirely adverse.
