Bitcoin is being left out of a broader rotation into traditional risk assets even as US consumer confidence has fallen to an all-time low and global equity markets continue to trade at record highs, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
Glassnode said weak consumer sentiment is accelerating a shift of capital out of cash and into equities, artificial intelligence-related assets, and commodities, as investors chase higher returns in riskier markets. Bitcoin has not benefited from that capital rotation, which the firm described as “money following assets that are already moving.”
The report noted that Bitcoin is trading at roughly half the level of its peak seen in October 2025 and has lagged behind the stock market throughout the summer. Glassnode highlighted that one of Bitcoin’s core investment narratives is that it tends to attract flows when confidence in traditional assets weakens. In the current cycle, however, capital is favoring assets that are already showing growth rather than rotating into digital assets.
Key Bitcoin levels are now in focus. Glassnode says Bitcoin is stuck between the midpoint of its realized on-chain cost at approximately $63,000 and the average cost level for short-term investors at $68,700. Reclaiming $68,700 with strong volume and ETF inflows could be a meaningful signal of recovery. Conversely, losing the June low of $58,500 could increase the risk of BTC testing even lower levels.
While there are some signs that sellers are becoming exhausted, Glassnode cautioned that there is not yet enough evidence to confirm a strong return of new buyers to the market.
