A recent Reuters poll shows a majority of economists expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year, citing moderating inflation and a resilient labor market. That consensus is now reflected across crypto-native prediction markets, where traders have wagered tens of millions of dollars on the outcome of the Fed's September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
Polymarket gives a 74% probability of no change at the next Fed meeting, with a 25% chance of a quarter-point hike and a 1% chance of a cut, on $33.9 million in volume. CFTC-regulated Kalshi prices a hold at 73.5%, backed by nearly $10 million wagered. Myriad, run by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, lists "No Change" at roughly 71–75%. The tight spread across platforms signals a strong market consensus for policy stability.
The Fed held rates at its July meeting in a divided 9–3 vote, with three members pushing for a hike. A separate Reuters poll found nearly 70% of economists expect no change through the rest of 2026. For crypto markets, the federal funds rate matters because it sets the baseline cost of borrowing; higher rates tend to draw money away from speculative assets, while cuts can push capital back into Bitcoin and Ethereum.
