U.S. stock futures were little changed Monday morning as Wall Street entered a week dominated by major retail earnings and the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes. S&P 500 futures traded near flat after a third consecutive weekly gain, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5% as investors rotated into technology shares. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped about 72 points, or 0.1%.
The retail calendar is the central focus. Home Depot reports Tuesday, Target and Lowe's report Wednesday, Walmart reports Thursday, while Ross Stores and Deere & Company also report Thursday and BJ's Wholesale Club closes the week on Friday. Walmart previously said shoppers appear to be 'navigating financial distress' and cut prices in response. Target warned that weak consumer confidence may slow momentum after posting same-store sales growth for the first time in more than a year. Home Depot has been leaning into professional contractors as consumers delay large home improvement projects.
Macro data underscore the caution. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed August pessimism increased, especially among older, lower-income and less-educated households; only 8% of respondents expect income growth to outpace inflation. U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% month over month in July, missing expectations for a 0.1% gain. Cooling consumer and producer inflation nevertheless reduced rate-hike fears: markets now price roughly 70% odds the Fed holds rates steady in September, with the probability of a hike below one-third. The VIX dropped to its lowest level of 2026 on Friday, and the 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.68%.
Fed minutes due Wednesday are expected to offer more detail on policymakers' thinking. Meanwhile, bank estimates highlight massive AI data center spending, with Goldman Sachs projecting $1 trillion globally in 2026, JPMorgan estimating $697 billion in the U.S., and Bank of America seeing a path to $1.2 trillion by 2027. However, chip shortages, skilled labor constraints, regulatory pushback, and a potential 19-gigawatt power shortfall by 2035 are limiting build-outs. For crypto markets, the combination of subdued volatility, steady Fed expectations, and mixed consumer data creates a relatively neutral macro backdrop, though Nvidia earnings next Wednesday could become the next broad risk-asset catalyst.
