Bitcoin is trading near $63,359 as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve’s release of minutes from its July 28–29 FOMC meeting, scheduled for August 19 at 2:00 p.m. ET (11:30 p.m. IST). The minutes are expected to clarify the central bank’s policy stance after it held its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75% in July, a decision that came with a notable 9–3 split. Dissenting views from Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan make the tone of the minutes particularly important for risk assets.
The pre-release market setup is divergent. The S&P 500 is edging lower while Bitcoin is pushing higher, a contrast traders view as a positioning and sentiment story rather than evidence that Bitcoin has fully decoupled from equities. If the minutes read as hawkish, tighter-for-longer expectations could pressure Bitcoin and other risk assets. If the language is more dovish, crypto buyers may extend the pre-release advance.
For Indian Bitcoin holders, the decision is complicated by local tax and currency factors. With USD/INR near 95.60, Indian returns depend on both BTC/USD price action and the rupee exchange rate. India taxes virtual digital asset gains at 30%, and a 1% TDS can apply to qualifying transfer value, making the Fed minutes a trigger for deciding whether to lock in unrealized gains or remain invested.
Institutional positioning underscores the macro sensitivity. Jane Street has held a sizable Bitcoin ETF position, an Abu Dhabi BlackRock Bitcoin ETF stake has previously lost value, and BitFuFu sold Bitcoin for operations as revenue fell 63%. The immediate post-minutes reaction is likely to be volatile: a supportive tone could fuel continuation, while a hawkish signal could prompt traders to unwind pre-release risk.
