United Overseas Bank (UOB) has published a measured but constructive currency outlook, highlighting a mild upside bias for the Singapore dollar against the US dollar and maintaining a near-term target of 1.1590 for EUR/USD. The assessments reflect shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy and resilient fundamentals in Singapore and the euro area.
For the Singapore dollar, UOB’s foreign exchange strategy team said the currency’s upside bias remains intact, supported by resilient domestic fundamentals, stable external conditions, Singapore’s trade performance and the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s exchange-rate-centered policy framework. The bank noted that while the US dollar may see intermittent strength, the SGD is likely to hold its ground, with appreciation potential expected to be gradual rather than sharp. The outlook remains sensitive to US inflation and the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent path: sticky US price pressures could limit SGD gains, whereas a shift to rate cuts would support more pronounced appreciation.
For the euro, UOB’s technical analysis points to an intact upside bias, with the pair expected to test the 1.1590 resistance zone. Strategists noted that pullbacks are being met with buying interest, and only a break below key support—commonly cited near 1.1480—would negate the current bias. The euro’s strength is being driven by market pricing for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, relative European Central Bank policy support, and broader shifts in global risk sentiment. A decisive break above 1.1590 could open the door to higher targets, while failure to clear that level may lead to consolidation. UOB emphasized that technical forecasts are not guarantees, and risk management remains essential for traders and businesses with currency exposure.
