Gold’s technical breakout above a key resistance zone has strengthened bullish targets, with analysts now eyeing a push toward $5,000 after the metal cleared $4,400 and then climbed above $4,500. The breakout occurred around the intersection of the $4,400 resistance level—former strong support from May that had been reversing price since June—and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the April-to-May downward impulse wave C. According to technical analysis, this accelerated the active short-term impulse wave (iii), which belongs to impulse wave 3 from mid-July, with the next resistance seen at $4,600.
The macro backdrop added fuel. The U.S. Treasury expanded its bond-buyback program, planning to double some long-dated debt purchases from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. That pushed Treasury yields lower and weakened the U.S. dollar. Spot gold climbed above $4,500, while silver moved above $67. The 30-year Treasury yield fell toward 5.18% after touching 5.337%, its highest level in 19 years, and the dollar index slipped toward 98.76.
However, Federal Reserve policy remains a risk. Minutes from the latest meeting showed policymakers kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in July, but some members supported a quarter-point increase and others said more tightening could follow if inflation stays high. Markets now assign a 33% probability to a September rate increase. Higher rates could lift real yields and the dollar, potentially pressuring precious metals.
Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran are also supporting safe-haven demand for gold, although elevated oil prices could keep inflation high and reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy. Key levels to watch: gold needs to hold above $4,300 and confirm a break above $4,520 to strengthen the case for a move toward $5,000; silver needs to remain above $60 to maintain bullish momentum. The 10-year Treasury yield is a critical indicator, with 5% acting as the key threshold for both metals.
