Bitcoin’s current bear market may be unfolding about 27% faster than in previous halving cycles, and the latest spot price action is reinforcing the pressure. According to crypto analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin’s recent trajectory has diverged from the traditional four-year halving rhythm, potentially setting the stage for a bottom in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, when the block reward paid to miners was cut in half. Historically, this supply reduction has preceded supply shocks and subsequent price rallies. However, Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin moved faster than its historical pace during the previous bull market, then realigned with the cycle after a long correction and sideways period, eventually peaking in October last year as expected. Now the analyst suggests the current bear market is moving ahead of a typical post-halving correction, which could result in either a Q4 bottom or a higher long-term low before Bitcoin resynchronizes with its traditional cycle.
That outlook landed alongside renewed spot market weakness, with Bitcoin extending its downturn on February 25 and slipping below $77,000 for the first time in several months. Data from Binance’s USDT market showed BTC trading at $76,880, a level traders are monitoring closely. Bitcoin’s market capitalization fell roughly 4% over the past week, with analysts citing U.S. interest rate expectations, regulatory uncertainty in key markets, profit-taking after a strong late-2024 rally, and a broader risk-off tone in global equities.
From a technical perspective, the break below $77,000 weakens a closely watched support level. The next major support zone sits around $74,000, which previously acted as resistance in late 2024. A quick rebound above $78,500, however, could signal that buyers are defending the current range. On-chain data shows short-term holders are still in a loss position, which often precedes additional selling pressure, while long-term holders appear to be accumulating—a pattern that has historically preceded price stabilization.
For investors, the possibility of an earlier bottom may create a clearer entry point, but it also introduces more volatility and uncertainty. Rekt Capital’s analysis underscores that historical cycles are only a framework, not a guarantee, especially as institutional participation, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions continue to shape Bitcoin’s market structure.
