Bitcoin’s recovery above $77,000 is showing signs of sustainability, with spot buying and ETF inflows outpacing fresh leverage, according to Bitfinex analysts. The cryptocurrency traded around $77,535 after reaching an intraday high near $79,200, up roughly 7% in 24 hours and about 23% over seven days. The rally began below $65,000 on Aug. 19, initially driven by a massive short squeeze that liquidated more than $1 billion in bearish positions within about one hour and pushed total short liquidations toward $1.79 billion.
Bitfinex noted that Bitcoin gained between 10% and 11% during the initial breakout, while aggregate open interest rose only about 4%. This pattern suggests spot purchases and short covering did most of the work, with new leveraged positions playing a smaller role. Analysts identified the $68,000 to $69,000 area as the main support zone, because Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis and its 200-day simple and exponential moving averages sit within that range. Bitcoin reclaimed its 200-day moving averages for the first time since November 2025.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $517 million in net inflows on Aug. 19 and another $606 million on Aug. 20, bringing the two-session total above $1.1 billion. Across Monday through Thursday, the funds took in approximately $1.6 billion, putting them on course for their strongest week of 2026. Standard Chartered digital asset research head Geoff Kendrick said recovering ETF flows and low open interest could allow more investors to return, adding that his earlier end-year forecast of $100,000 may prove too low and Bitcoin could move toward its $126,000 record before year-end.
Separately, CoinShares said Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound below the $80,000 mark amid uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy. The firm noted that whale accumulation has resumed, but traders are awaiting clearer signals from the Fed before any significant breakout. Macro conditions have been supportive: the U.S. Treasury Department said it would at least double the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks for certain government securities beginning Sept. 9. Still, Bitfinex warned that renewed increases in Treasury yields and a large volume of profitable Bitcoin moving onto exchanges could trigger significant profit-taking.
