Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s economic strategy is gaining support from a sharp decline in energy prices, while Bitwise Asset Management argues that his debt management moves and the politicization of the U.S. dollar are strengthening Bitcoin’s long-term investment case.
Cheaper crude oil and natural gas have reduced input costs for businesses and household utility bills, helping to cool inflation without forcing aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. Brent crude fell to around $70 per barrel in June 2025, down from more than $80 in early April. Headline inflation eased to 3.2% year-over-year in May from 3.5% in March. The dollar index slipped roughly 1.5% since early May to hover near 104.5, with the euro at $1.0850 and the yen at 155 per dollar. Futures markets now price a 70% chance of a September rate cut.
Bitwise says Bessent’s signal of a shift in U.S. debt management — including potential changes to long-term bond issuance — is aimed at controlling borrowing costs and stabilizing the Treasury market, but it also raises concerns about the dollar's long-term stability. Combined with dollar weaponization, or the use of the U.S. financial system for sanctions and asset freezes, this is prompting some nations and investors to seek alternatives to dollar-denominated assets.
Bitwise believes that Bitcoin, as a decentralized asset outside direct government control, becomes more attractive as a hedge against such geopolitical and monetary risks. The firm says these developments reinforce Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative, though it cautions that Bitcoin remains volatile and should be part of a diversified portfolio.
The broader macro setup is benefiting energy-importing emerging markets such as India and Turkey, while creating fiscal pressures for exporters like Russia and Saudi Arabia. For crypto investors, the key takeaway is that lower energy costs, a softer dollar and Washington’s policy choices are adding to Bitcoin’s appeal as a non-sovereign store of value.
