Solana's attempt to establish a foothold above the psychological $100 level has failed for now, with SOL briefly trading above $102 before retreating to roughly $97 on Aug. 26. Although the immediate $100 breakout was invalidated by the rejection, market analysts cautioned that it is too early to declare the end of the broader bullish recovery, as the asset is still up approximately 27% over the last 30 days and 26% over the past week.
The key level to watch has shifted to $89–$90. Solana cleared its long-term moving average near $89.50 during the rally, and that zone is now being treated as the most important support. A sustained hold above $89 would suggest the breakout above former resistance was structural rather than a transient spike, and could allow buyers to consolidate before another attempt through $100–$103. A daily close below $89, however, would expose $84, followed by the $78–$80 cluster.
Derivatives data shows aggressive positioning contributed to the rejection. On Binance, the SOL/USDT long/short ratio was roughly 2.07, with top traders showing ratios above 2.0, meaning significantly more longs than shorts. Over a 24-hour period, about $17.51 million in SOL positions were liquidated. Additionally, 12-hour futures flows showed a net outflow of about $60.77 million, leaving room for further leveraged longs to be forced out on another downward move.
Technical indicators also point to overheated conditions. The RSI remained near 79, well into overbought territory, making profit-taking and deleveraging unsurprising after the rapid expansion from the mid-$70s. Despite the rejection, Solana remains comfortably above the long-term moving average, and the rally occurred on significant trading volume.
Longer-term analysis frames the current pullback as a potential retest of the broken $88 ceiling. If the $88–$90 area holds, analysts see near-term upside toward $120–$124, with Fibonacci resistance levels at about $110.16, $132.93, $160.42, and $209.63. A long-term Elliott Wave scenario from More Crypto Online maintains a broader bullish target range of $430 to $780, though that is a longer-term projection requiring SOL to clear several major resistance levels first. The same framework also leaves room for a deeper correction toward $62.43 and potentially $48.79–$43.22 if the recent recovery structure fails.
