Bitcoin is behaving more like gold and less like a high-risk technology stock, according to Grayscale research published on Aug. 27. The report shows Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has climbed above 50% after starting 2026 near zero, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has dropped from more than 60% to roughly 33%.
Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said the shift may indicate investors are reconsidering Bitcoin as a scarce monetary asset rather than treating it primarily as a speculative tech investment. The analysis ties the change to renewed concern over U.S. debt and fiscal deficits. U.S. gross federal debt crossed $40 trillion on Aug. 18, reaching about $40.05 trillion, and rose to roughly $40.10 trillion by Aug. 25. The Congressional Budget Office projects a $1.9 trillion federal deficit for fiscal 2026.
Pandl framed the trend as a possible “regime change” for Bitcoin and other scarce digital assets, though he stopped short of predicting prices. The research describes a potential “debasement trade,” in which investors seek assets resistant to declining fiat-currency purchasing power. Bitcoin’s fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins supports that narrative, but Grayscale cautioned that correlation measures co-movement, not causation, and can change quickly across different observation periods.
Bitcoin’s recent price action illustrates the mixed signals. It rallied from $62,679 on Aug. 17 to approximately $79,500 on Aug. 21—a 27% five-day advance—before surrendering part of that gain. The move coincided with Treasury buyback changes, heavy spot ETF demand, short liquidations and a weaker dollar. Even with the stronger gold correlation, Bitcoin remains exposed to crypto leverage, exchange flows, regulation and shifts in risk appetite.
BlackRock has made a similar case, with its digital-assets head saying rising U.S. debt strengthens Bitcoin’s long-term investment case. For the trend to be confirmed, traders will watch whether Bitcoin continues to gain alongside gold while tech stocks weaken, or whether it falls with the Nasdaq during broad risk-off events.
