Bitcoin’s push back toward $80,000 has put a larger share of its supply into profit, but new on-chain readings from CryptoQuant suggest the recovery is not uniformly bullish. Data published on August 28 indicated that roughly 69% of Bitcoin’s supply is now in profit after the price rebounded from about $62,000 to briefly touch $80,000 within a week. However, the same research noted that $617 billion of the capital invested in Bitcoin remains underwater, even though profitable supply has stayed above 50% for most of the current cycle.
A separate analysis published on August 29 flagged selling risk across two metrics. First, Bitcoin held in Binance-labeled wallets rose from approximately 617,000 BTC in late April to about 685,000 BTC at the end of August, the exchange’s highest reserve reading of 2026. CryptoQuant cautioned that higher exchange reserves increase potential sell-side capacity but do not prove coins have been offered for sale, because wallet reorganizations, custody transfers, collateral movements and market-making activity can also affect balances.
Second, the seven-day average Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio, or STH-SOPR, climbed to around 1.03. A reading above 1 means recently acquired coins moved at an aggregate profit. The metric points to some profit-taking among short-term holders, but it does not identify who spent the coins, whether they were sent to an exchange, or whether they were actually sold.
The two readings are not necessarily contradictory. Binance’s reserve measures where coins are located, while STH-SOPR measures the profit or loss realized by recently spent coins. CryptoQuant analysts said stronger bearish confirmation would require persistent exchange net inflows, large deposits, accelerating spot sell volume, and continued STH-SOPR above 1. Alternatively, if Binance reserves stabilize or decline and spot demand absorbs profit-taking near $80,000, the selling pressure may prove manageable.
