The US labour market is showing clearer signs of cooling, according to the latest labour market watch from NBC Economics and Strategy, placing this week's US jobs data at the center of Bitcoin's September price outlook.
The report highlights a slowdown in nonfarm payroll additions, with the three-month average falling to its lowest level in over a year. Average hourly earnings growth decelerated to 3.9% year-over-year, down from a peak of 5.9% in early 2023, while the unemployment rate stands at 3.8%, slightly above the cycle low of 3.4%. NBC said the data suggests labour supply and demand are coming into better alignment, supporting a patient Federal Reserve approach and increasing the probability of a rate cut in coming months.
Bitcoin traded around $78,000, down 0.2% on the day, while prediction market Kalshi showed a close split for the September 15–16 FOMC meeting: 53% odds of a 25-basis-point increase and 47% odds of no change. Five major reports are due before the Fed meets, with Friday's nonfarm payrolls release expected to be the most closely watched. The central question is whether labour-market data show enough cooling to make a rate increase harder to justify or enough strength to lift expectations for a hike.
According to market commentary, weaker job growth or a rising unemployment rate could reduce expectations for a September rate increase and support Bitcoin and crypto prices. In contrast, a strong payrolls report could raise rate-hike expectations and add pressure to risk assets. BTC was up nearly 2% over the past week, having moved from $68,000 to over $81,000, with daily trading volume around $66 billion.
The wider crypto market snapshot showed total capitalization at $2.68 trillion, down 1%, while trading volume reached $642.54 billion, up 102.51%. Ethereum traded at $2,440, down 0.2%, and XRP at $1.36, down 2%. The Altcoin Season Index stood at 24, indicating Bitcoin season, and the Fear and Greed Index was at 62 in Greed territory. ETF flows were negative $151.70 million, and total liquidations reached $391.92 million, including $276.74 million in long liquidations. The Federal Reserve has held its target range at 3.50%–3.75% since Chair Kevin Warsh took office in May, and analysts say his Jackson Hole remarks reflected concern about underlying inflation trends, reinforcing the focus on incoming labour data.
