Australia’s External Data Surprises as Trade Deficit Narrows and Commodity Prices Stay Firm

1 hour ago 1 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • AUD strength from better data may boost risk appetite for crypto markets.
  • Elevated commodity prices signal persistent inflation, likely keeping RBA hawkish for longer.
  • Traders should watch GDP revisions as they could sway global macro sentiment.

Australia’s external accounts delivered a double dose of better-than-expected economic data, according to reports from BitcoinWorld. The country’s current account deficit narrowed to A$27.22 billion in the second quarter of 2024, beating market forecasts of a A$30 billion shortfall. The improvement was attributed to resilient trade performance, robust export revenues in key commodity sectors and moderating import growth, which helped offset continued net outflows in the primary income account.

As a key component of the national accounts, the narrower deficit suggests net exports are likely to make a less negative, or possibly positive, contribution to GDP for the June quarter. This could lead to upward revisions in consensus GDP forecasts and offers a marginal tailwind for the Australian dollar, with the financial markets watching closely ahead of the full national accounts release.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Commodity Price Index, measured in Special Drawing Rights terms, rose to 15.5% year-on-year in August, up slightly from a revised 15.4% in July. The index tracks prices for major commodity exports including iron ore, coal, natural gas and agricultural products. The sustained double-digit growth indicates export prices remain elevated, supporting corporate profits, government revenue and national income, while also contributing to inflationary considerations for the RBA.

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