Bitcoin traded around $78,000 to $79,000 early this week, consolidating after a 25% August gain that marked its best August since 2017 and strongest month since November 2024, according to LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger.
The crypto held most of that advance even as macro conditions tightened: Brent crude rose above $90 and West Texas Intermediate gained 2.85% to $85.78 after renewed US-Iran military action raised supply fears. Spot gold fell 0.26% to $4,441.04 an ounce, though it remained up 9.7% for August, while traders lifted the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to about 64% from around 36% after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Treasury yields added pressure, with the 10-year yield at 4.76%, its highest since January 2025, and the 30-year yield at 5.269%, near its highest since January 2007. The Kobeissi Letter said the bond market appeared to be “completely ignoring the US Treasury.”
Kruger said the resilience was notable given the difficult cross-asset backdrop, but higher oil prices and Warsh's message limited bitcoin’s immediate upside. He expects consolidation, with $80,000 to $82,820 as the main area BTC needs to clear; a sustained break above that range could open a move back above $100,000.
Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere said bitcoin briefly moved above $81,000 before slipping below $78,000 after Warsh’s speech, but finished the week almost flat. Spot bitcoin ETFs brought in $924 million over nine straight positive sessions before a $202 million outflow on Friday. De Maere said under-allocated investors were providing price support, with resistance around $82,000 and support at $75,000 and $72,000.
Technically, BTC remained above its 50-week exponential moving average at $78,377. Analyst Rekt Capital pointed to a potential hidden bearish divergence between daily price and RSI, with the daily RSI at 61.83 in overbought territory. Traders were watching Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report; economists expect a modest 55,000 rise in August jobs and unemployment to remain at 4.1%.
In the broader market, the FTC and 22 state attorneys general sued Amazon over claims it misled advertisers on pricing, potentially exposing the company to billions in penalties; Amazon disputed the allegations. The action added to Amazon’s FTC disputes, after the company agreed in 2025 to pay $2.5 billion over a Prime subscription investigation. Gold’s decline came as higher interest rate expectations and stronger oil prices weighed on the metal.
