Gold’s 2026 rally has entered a decisive phase, with spot prices testing the $4,500-an-ounce area after a sharp August rebound. The recovery follows a steep correction triggered by a stronger US dollar, shifting rate expectations and profit-taking, and now the metal’s next move depends on the interplay of Federal Reserve policy, Treasury debt management and investment flows.
According to Rick Kanda, Managing Director at The Gold Bullion Company, a sustainable break above $4,500 would require stabilizing or falling real yields, a weaker US dollar and stronger investment demand. He also highlighted concerns around US fiscal policy and the Treasury’s expanded long-dated bond buybacks, which have raised questions about long-term borrowing costs and made gold more attractive as a hedge.
Kanda said the Fed remains an ‘incredibly significant swing factor’ for gold through the end of 2026. If policymakers tolerate inflation and keep rates lower, gold would benefit; if the Fed is forced into further hikes, rising yields could pressure the non-yielding metal. The recent hawkish tone from Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks has already lifted near-term rate hike expectations. A rebound in the dollar could create a double headwind, especially if it reflects stronger US data and reduced rate-cut bets.
Central-bank demand remains structurally supportive, with official-sector purchases of 289 tonnes in Q2 after a weak Q1. Kanda views this as part of a longer-term diversification strategy rather than a reactive buying spree. Meanwhile, US gold ETFs saw outflows in Q2, but institutional investors could return if momentum improves alongside a weaker dollar and lower interest rates.
A separate technical outlook points to key support levels near $1,800 and then $1,760 — far below current spot prices — warning that a loss of those areas could deepen selling. Kanda’s end-2026 scenarios are more bullish: a base case of $4,800–$5,300, a bull case of $5,500–$6,000, and a bear case of $4,000–$4,400 if the dollar rebounds and the Fed tightens further.
For cryptocurrency markets, the same Fed, dollar and real-yield signals are likely to shape risk appetite even though the interview is focused on gold.
