The crypto market's recent rebound has sparked fresh debate over whether a new bull cycle is underway, with market maker Wintermute arguing that price gains alone are not enough. Bitcoin has climbed nearly 40% from its late-June lows, and over the past two weeks it has posted a strong recovery, but Wintermute analysts say the market still lacks the kind of large, new capital inflows that powered previous bull runs.
According to Wintermute, earlier cycles were driven by ICOs, stablecoins, spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investments. Now those narratives are considered mature. The firm believes the most promising source of new capital could be the tokenization of real-world assets, or RWAs. It noted that the total value of RWA assets has more than doubled in a year, surpassing $30 billion, and if that growth accelerates it could channel traditional capital into blockchain markets and turn Bitcoin's current rise into a broader, more sustainable bull market.
Separate commentary from frontier-tech investor Didier and macro hedge fund portfolio manager Griffin Ardern highlighted the technical and macro signals behind Bitcoin's bounce. Didier views Bitcoin's break above its 200-day moving average as significant, supported by low positioning and heavy short interest. Ardern is more cautious, describing the market as still in the final stages of a prolonged bear cycle and calling for clearer evidence from dollar liquidity, US fiscal policy and the Treasury bond market. Both agreed the rally was not driven solely by fundamentals, citing short covering, underpositioning and shifting US fiscal expectations. They also discussed Strategy's Bitcoin position and the possibility that capital could rotate from crowded AI-themed trades into crypto.
