Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is trading around $411 on September 3, down about 1% on the day and 4% over five sessions, despite Wall Street raising price targets through the summer. The pullback sits inside a strong run: TSM is up about 32% year to date and roughly 78% over the past 12 months. July revenue reached NT$467.58 billion, or about $14.5 billion, up 44.7% year over year, while full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to "slightly above 40%" in US-dollar terms. Capital expenditure plans were lifted to $60 billion to $64 billion from $52 billion to $56 billion.
Analyst optimism remains elevated. Citi lifted its target on Taiwan-listed shares to NT$3,800 from NT$2,875 in early July, and Stifel initiated coverage with a Buy on September 1. The US ADR consensus 12-month target sits around $539 to $554, implying roughly 30% upside. Still, the stock has cooled with the broader semiconductor group. The PHLX Semiconductor Index is up about 72% over 12 months but has fallen roughly 15% from its peak, and a late-July rout wiped more than $1 trillion off large chip names. Chairman C.C. Wei tied the raised outlook directly to artificial intelligence, saying "AI-related demand continues to be extremely robust."
At Apple, shares closed at $324.96 on September 2, essentially flat as investors digested new CEO John Ternus’s second trading session. Apple sits 6% below its 52-week high of $344.57 and is about 37.7% higher over the past year. Ternus officially became CEO on September 1, while Tim Cook moved to executive chairman. His disclosed compensation package includes a $3 million base salary and $55 million in target equity for fiscal 2027, for a total target package of $58 million, with 75% performance-linked to total shareholder return relative to the S&P 500.
The September 9 "Surprise and Shine" event is now the near-term catalyst. It is expected to feature the iPhone 18 Pro and possibly Apple's first foldable device, reportedly called iPhone Ultra, with leaked pricing estimates between $1,800 and $2,500. The standard iPhone 18 lineup has reportedly been deferred to spring 2027, concentrating attention on high-margin Pro and foldable tiers. Macro conditions add pressure: the S&P 500 fell 0.42% on September 1 amid a global bond selloff, with the US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.77% and Japanese bond yields breaching 30-year highs. For TSM, the August revenue print due around September 10 is the next key data point.
