Bitcoin enters a pivotal stretch ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 FOMC meeting, with this week’s U.S. inflation reports likely to set the tone for risk assets. Markets are closed Monday for Labor Day, leaving Thursday’s producer price index and Friday’s consumer price index as the main macro catalysts.
Economists expect August headline PPI to rise 0.4% month-over-month, after no increase in July, with core PPI forecast at 0.3%. Annual producer inflation is projected to accelerate from 4.7% to 5.4%. The August CPI report is expected to show annual inflation around 3.3%–3.4%, while core CPI is seen easing from July’s 2.5%. Hotter readings could reinforce arguments for another Fed rate hike, pressuring BTC and pushing Treasury yields higher.
The macro backdrop has already shifted. Last Friday’s jobs report showed 162,000 new nonfarm jobs in August, far above the 55,000 expected, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. June and July payrolls were revised up by a combined 55,000. CME Group’s FedWatch tool now puts the odds of a quarter-point September rate hike at 58%, up from about 52% before the data, while Polymarket odds moved near a 50/50 split. Fed Governor Christopher Waller had said Thursday he favored keeping rates unchanged, but the strong employment figures quickly changed market expectations.
Bitcoin dropped more than 2% after the jobs data, sliding from $81,300 to $78,600 before recovering toward the $79,500–$79,800 range. It has stabilized around $80,000 despite hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and rising rate-hike odds. BTC remains on track for a roughly 3% weekly gain, which would be its third consecutive positive week, after hitting $82,178.60 earlier in the week—the highest level since mid-May. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $175 million, providing some demand support.
Regulatory developments are also in focus. SEC Chair Paul Atkins expects a Senate vote on the Clarity Act on September 15, although disagreements remain over stablecoin yield payments and crypto trading rules. Meanwhile, Strategy—the largest corporate Bitcoin holder—rallied nearly 18% on Thursday, underscoring continued institutional interest in Bitcoin-focused companies.
