Bitcoin traded near $79,500 on Sept. 7 as investors prepared for a week of U.S. inflation data, a Treasury auction, and the final stretch before the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15–16 policy meeting. The cryptocurrency was down about 0.5% over 24 hours after reaching an intraday high near $80,494 and retreating toward $79,120 during holiday-thinned trading. U.S. stock and bond markets were closed for Labor Day, but crypto markets remained open.
The macro backdrop shifted after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far above the roughly 55,000 expected. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, and traders raised the estimated probability of a September rate increase to approximately 58% following the strong payrolls report. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.78%, closer to the 5% level that some investors view as troublesome for equities and speculative assets.
Two inflation reports now stand as the main near-term catalysts. The August Producer Price Index arrives Thursday, Sept. 10, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Economists expect headline PPI to rise 0.4% month over month, with core PPI up 0.3%. Annual producer inflation is forecast to accelerate from 4.7% to 5.4%. A hotter reading could reinforce concerns that higher energy and input costs are spreading through the economy, while a softer result could ease pressure on Treasury yields and rate-hike expectations.
The August Consumer Price Index follows Friday, Sept. 11, also at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Economists expect annual headline CPI to remain near 3.4%, while core CPI may ease to 2.4% from 2.5% in July. The core reading will be closely scrutinized because Federal Reserve officials want evidence that underlying price pressures are continuing to cool toward the central bank’s 2% target. A hotter core print could strengthen the case for a 25-basis-point hike, while a cooler reading could support a pause.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would be willing to support holding the policy rate steady if there is continued progress toward the 2% inflation goal, but added that accelerating inflation could make a rate increase appropriate. Fed funds futures late Friday indicated about a 57% probability of a September hike, while the rates market priced in roughly 15 basis points of tightening for September and about 60 basis points of hikes through June 2027.
Bitcoin’s immediate levels remain approximately $80,000 and $82,500 on the upside. A sustained move below the Sept. 5 low would weaken the recovery, while a close above recent resistance could signal renewed demand. Although PPI, CPI, the 10-year Treasury note auction on Sept. 9, and the Fed decision on Sept. 16 provide dated catalysts, ETF flows, leverage, geopolitical risks, and broader liquidity conditions will also influence Bitcoin’s direction.
