Bitcoin’s supply dynamics are drawing fresh attention after Bitfinex reported that more than 71% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently in profit, approaching the historically significant 74.7% mean level. According to Bitfinex analysts, previous moves above that threshold have often marked transitions from bear to bull markets. The observation comes as BTC price recovered near $78,600 after an intraday low of $77,603, still below the $82,000 level reached last week.
Glassnode added another layer to the analysis by ranking long-term holder supply as the strongest explanatory variable for one-month realized volatility, ahead of illiquid supply, liveliness, absolute funding rates, market capitalization, open interest, and trading activity. When more coins remain inactive, fewer units circulate through speculative markets, which can mute short-term price swings. Glassnode classifies holder cohorts by average purchase date, centering the long-term holder transition near 155 days.
Bitfinex cautioned that profit supply is not a standalone bullish signal. With more coins showing paper gains at similar price levels, there is a deeper pool of potential sellers near previous local highs. That may help explain why attempts near $82,000 have attracted profit-taking. The latest BTC swing liquidated $79 million in Bitcoin positions, while total crypto liquidations reached $264 million, including $187 million in longs.
ETF flows remain supportive. Lookonchain reported $31.07 million in daily Bitcoin ETF net inflows and $698.42 million in weekly inflows. Bitfinex also cited continued ETF demand and stablecoin growth as market support. Crypto capitalization excluding Bitcoin, Ether, and stablecoins has increased by $51.2 billion since September began, sitting above mid-August levels.
Macro events are now in focus, including the September 9 Treasury buyback, August PPI due Thursday, and August CPI due Friday. The two-year Treasury yield holds above 4.34%, while August payrolls increased by 162,000, exceeding the 53,000 consensus estimate. A hotter inflation reading could strengthen the case for tighter policy and weigh on risk assets, potentially restraining a BTC price advance even with positive fund flows.
