Ethereum's late-August rally is facing closer scrutiny after on-chain data suggested the move may not have been driven by large-scale spot accumulation, even as Bitmine Immersion Technologies expanded its ETH treasury and chairman Tom Lee pointed to possible year-end catalysts.
According to Dune-based analysis, ETH climbed 31.6% from $1,904.14 on 18 August to $2,506.53 on 27 August. However, DEX traders bought $2.217 billion worth of ETH and sold $2.090 billion during that window, leaving net buying of just $126.9 million, a net-flow ratio of about 2.95%. In token terms, approximately 951,282 ETH were bought and 893,355 ETH were sold, resulting in net accumulation of roughly 57,927 ETH, or a 3.14% net-flow ratio. The report noted that ETH's largest daily jump occurred with nearly balanced buying and selling, and that price even rose on some days with net sell volume, such as 22 August when the net-flow ratio was -6.06%. Analysts therefore argued there is 'no evidence that actual whale accumulation caused the ETH rally' and suggested a short squeeze may have amplified the move.
On-chain whale data showed that wallets in the $100,000 to $500,000 cohort generated the most trades, with 5,595 trades, $554.1 million in buys and $503.8 million in sells. However, the smaller number of $5 million-plus wallets accounted for a significant portion of actual volume. Just two wallets drove about $182 million of net buying, roughly 89% of the $5 million-plus accumulation, but those addresses were mostly DEX and DEX aggregator wallets rather than identifiable individual whales.
Separately, Bitmine Immersion Technologies announced it purchased 27,180 ETH over the past week, bringing its holdings to 5,956,378 ETH as of 13 September. At Coinbase's price of $2,513 per ETH, that position was valued at nearly $15 billion and represented 4.9% of Ethereum's 122 million-token supply. The purchase follows an acquisition of 28,086 ETH one week earlier, and the company is now 98% of the way toward its goal of owning 5% of all ETH. Lee said: 'Bitmine's track record of consistent buying of crypto is unmatched by any public company in the world.'
Bitmine also reported 5,067,309 ETH staked as of 7 September, about 85% of its treasury, with a seven-day annualized staking yield of 2.62% and an estimated $334 million in annual staking revenue. Much of its staking runs through MAVAN, its Made in America Validator Network. Lee pointed to the upcoming U.S. Senate vote on the CLARITY Act, returning Korean crypto demand, and the view that 'the 4-year cycle is bottoming within the next few weeks' as possible year-end market catalysts. Bitmine adviser Tom DeMark added that ETH's sideways August action and the expiration of a 12-day technical count support a pending advance, saying late August's sharp one-day rally was 'a likely preview of the pending advance.'
As of 14 September, ETH traded above $2,500, with resistance near $2,550 and weak trend strength despite staying above major moving averages and a positive four-hour Supertrend above $2,429.
