Avalanche (AVAX) is trading near $7.40 after slipping about 0.37% over the latest 24-hour period, according to Brave New Coin data, but technical analysts are watching a major resistance cluster between $7.80 and $8.00. This zone aligns with the rounded-bottom neckline and two key moving averages, and a sustained breakout could open a move toward $10.60.
AVAX is attempting to reclaim both the 21-week moving average and the 200-day moving average at roughly the same time. The daily chart places the 200-day moving average near the $8 area, while the weekly structure shows the 21-week average pressing into the same region. Analysts view this as an important confirmation zone: historically, sustained moves above both longer-term averages can mark a meaningful shift in market structure, but AVAX must hold above the cluster rather than produce a short-lived spike.
The daily chart also shows a possible rounded-bottom recovery after AVAX spent several months building a base around the $6 region. The setup places the next major upside target around $10.60 if buyers clear the $7.80–$8.00 resistance zone. On the downside, $7.10–$7.20 remains the first important support area. Losing that region would weaken the current recovery attempt and increase the risk of a return toward the broader $6.00–$6.20 base.
A longer-term Elliott Wave structure suggests Avalanche may be completing a large corrective phase. From the current region around $8, the chart maps a potential recovery first toward approximately $28.51, followed by $35.56 and $42.60, with the higher part of the projected recovery zone near $52.62. Those targets require AVAX to first break out from its lower-range structure and sustain a move above the $8–$10 region. More extended wave projections place a potential wave-three objective around $236.76, followed by $379.81 and a wave-five extension near $583.94, though those are long-range roadmaps rather than near-term forecasts.
Fundamental support is also improving. Avalanche Summit NYC sold out, and the ecosystem’s total value locked is near $480 million, while stablecoin supply is around $1.35 billion. Improving TVL, stablecoin liquidity, and community activity may provide a more supportive base if the technical recovery continues. The wider crypto market has recovered well since August, with sentiment improving and selling pressure easing, which could work in Avalanche’s favor.
