Bitcoin is heading into a high-stakes macro window, with Bybit cautioning traders about potential volatility around the Federal Open Market Committee’s upcoming decision and bond market signals adding downside pressure.
Bybit’s analysis of 40 FOMC meetings from 2022 to 2026 shows BTC’s first five-minute price reaction has been almost evenly split between gains and losses, underscoring how unpredictable Bitcoin’s response to monetary policy can be. The exchange notes that short-term trading strategies may need adjustment and highlights tools such as Bybit Odds for traders looking to position around expected moves.
Meanwhile, the macro backdrop has become more challenging. The US 10-year Treasury yield surged above 5% on Tuesday after breaking a descending trendline in place since June 2007, a notable 19-year technical breakout. Rising yields weighed on risk assets, and Bitcoin slid toward important support at $76,000. A failure there could open a path toward the low $70,000 area, with analysts identifying possible downside targets around $73,000 and then a stronger support zone between $69,000 and $70,000.
Technical charts show Bitcoin recently reached $79,600 before retreating in what is viewed as a lower high. The price has since fallen back below a descending trendline and the $77,000 support level. A potential head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart is nearing completion, and its measured downside target aligns closely with the 200-day simple moving average.
On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin’s consolidation near the top of a large prior breakout candle remains contested. Although the RSI has broken above a multi-year descending trendline and MACD lines are still pointing upward, shrinking histogram bars suggest fading bullish momentum. The likely 25-basis-point interest rate hike at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting adds to the cautious near-term outlook, and bearish pressure could persist in the short to medium term.
