Novo Nordisk shares fell sharply on Monday after the drugmaker’s Capital Markets Day in London failed to convince investors that its long-term pipeline can replace the growth generated by Wegovy and Ozempic. The Copenhagen-listed stock dropped as much as 9% during European trading, while the NYSE-listed ADR was down nearly 8% at around 18:15 GMT on September 21.
The company presented its strategic ambitions through 2030, saying it expects compound annual revenue growth between 2026 and 2030 to be broadly in line with a large group of pharmaceutical peers. Novo also said its adjusted operating margin should remain broadly stable. It framed the targets as strategic ambitions rather than formal financial guidance, a qualification that appeared to weigh on investors accustomed to much faster growth during the GLP-1 boom.
Novo outlined plans to launch more than five medicines with multi-blockbuster potential by 2030 and targeted more than DKK 150 billion, or about $23 billion, in risk-adjusted pipeline sales by 2035. The company also wants at least five Phase 3 programs in obesity and diabetes and at least five more across other therapeutic areas. It aims to serve more than 60 million patients worldwide by 2030 and expand manufacturing capacity for oral obesity medicines to reach around 15 million patients.
Chief Executive Mike Doustdar described the approaching loss of semaglutide exclusivity as the “elephant in the room.” U.S. patent protection for semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, is expected to begin expiring around 2032. The company is trying to diversify into cardiovascular disease, liver disease, blood disorders and endocrine conditions to reduce reliance on one franchise.
Positive Phase 3 data for CagriSema could not stop the selling. Novo said CagriSema produced average weight loss of 12.4% in a late-stage diabetes study, compared with 9.1% for a lower dose of Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide. Management is targeting a launch early next year. Still, investors focused on competition from Lilly and the longer-term challenge of replacing semaglutide’s earnings power once key patents expire.
