BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warned in his Sept. 22 essay “Safety First” that a pullback in U.S. artificial intelligence spending could eventually force government support for AI infrastructure or stressed insurers, creating dollar liquidity that he expects would favor Bitcoin. Hayes argued that recent calls by major U.S. AI companies to slow frontier model development may have an economic explanation alongside the safety concerns they have publicly cited.
OpenAI said in August that it temporarily slowed parts of frontier model development after cybersecurity concerns and stronger internal safeguards became necessary, while Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for the industry to pace model development so safety controls could catch up with capabilities. Hayes, however, suggested demand for expensive AI services could prove weaker than the spending assumptions supporting data centers, chips and related debt. He described the shift as “compute demand destruction” and outlined two possible government responses if AI infrastructure economics deteriorate: Washington becoming a “compute buyer of last resort,” or financial support for insurers if losses on private credit threaten policyholder claims. Both scenarios, he contends, would require increased government borrowing, banking-system liquidity or direct monetary support, raising demand for Bitcoin and other scarce assets.
Credit research from Apollo estimates AI infrastructure spending could reach about $5 trillion through 2030, with the AI ecosystem supporting more than $2 trillion of additional investment-grade debt while public markets may absorb less than $1 trillion. Apollo also noted consensus forecasts assume operating cash flow at five major hyperscalers—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle—will rise from roughly $600 billion to $2 trillion by 2030. The NAIC has separately said private credit has less liquidity, weaker price transparency and less frequent valuation than publicly traded debt, prompting closer monitoring. Hayes’s broader systemic-risk argument depends on indirect exposure through private credit, reinsurance and structured financing; research cited by Hayes estimates affiliated reinsurance credits across the U.S. life and annuity industry total $1.54 trillion.
No U.S. authority has announced either policy in response to an AI debt crisis. Immediate monetary easing is not yet materializing: the Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points on Sept. 16 to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since July 2023, with officials saying inflation remained elevated. Bitcoin traded near $85,700 early Sept. 22 after climbing more than 6% during the previous session.
