Nike shares came under renewed selling pressure after Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchinson downgraded the athletic footwear giant to underperform and cut her price target to $30 — implying roughly another 15% downside from current levels.
The move adds to a difficult year for NKE, which closed around $35.75 on September 25, down approximately 44% in 2026 and near a 12-year low. Hutchinson argued that prolonged revenue weakness in core footwear segments, sharp declines in classic lifestyle franchises, and North American wholesale inventory risks have pushed any meaningful operational turnaround into fiscal 2028.
BofA also lowered Nike’s fiscal 2027 earnings per share estimate by 11% to $1.43, about 14% below consensus, and cut fiscal 2028 EPS estimates by 12%. The analyst highlighted that Nike’s projected dividend payout ratio would rise to roughly 107% for fiscal 2027, raising concerns that the payout may stay flat or face restructuring.
The bearish call follows Nike’s fiscal 2026 revenue of $46.4 billion, still almost 10% below the $51.4 billion peak from fiscal 2024. Wholesale revenue rose 6% to $27.5 billion, but Nike Direct fell 6% to $17.7 billion and digital sales dropped 12%. Greater China remained a key weak spot, with fourth-quarter sales down 17%. The weakness has been severe enough that Nike was recently removed from the S&P 100.
Nike is scheduled to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on October 1, with consensus estimates pointing to a 2.4% revenue decline to $11.4 billion. With the stock trading below all key moving averages, BofA warned that sentiment may have further room to deteriorate before a durable valuation floor appears.
