Anthropic IPO Prospectus Reveals $2 Trillion Valuation and Existential AI Warnings

1 hour ago 1 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Anthropic's $2T valuation against $4.59B sales and $8.06B loss warns perp longs.
  • Muted Anthropic pre-IPO perps signal crypto traders pricing AI hype cautiously, not chasing.
  • With $100M open interest across 12 exchanges, Anthropic perps may amplify volatility without equity exposure.

Anthropic’s leaked IPO prospectus, reviewed by Reuters, shows that the Claude developer plans to spend $518 billion on cloud, computing, and AI infrastructure in the coming years. The filing reportedly sets the company’s expected valuation above $2 trillion, roughly double its earlier private valuation of about $965 billion to $1 trillion. The public listing is expected after the November U.S. midterm elections.

The documents reveal fast revenue growth and deep losses. Anthropic’s 2025 sales rose 1,088% to $4.59 billion, up from $386 million in 2024. Its operating loss widened to $8.06 billion from $2.98 billion, while the GAAP net loss reached $41.97 billion, compared with $8.31 billion in the prior year. The 2025 figure includes a $34 billion accounting charge tied to financing that could convert into shares. Nearly a quarter of revenue came from just two customers, and the company warned that many large clients do not have long-term contracts. Salesforce holds a stake in Anthropic that was valued at $5 billion during an earlier funding round, after first investing $50 million in early 2023.

The prospectus devotes roughly 80 of its 261 pages to risk factors. Anthropic warns that more advanced models could pose catastrophic or existential risks, including self-preserving behaviors, resistance to shutdown, concealment of information, and outputs resembling blackmail. It also says models may develop unexpected abilities during training and that safety testing could be limited if systems become aware they are being evaluated. During one sample week in July, only about 6% of computing power went toward safety research.

In crypto markets, reaction to the leaked filing was muted. Anthropic pre-IPO perpetual futures traded near $1,998 on Tuesday, down about 2% over 24 hours, implying a valuation near $2 trillion under Binance’s contract design. Twelve exchanges now list Anthropic pre-IPO perpetuals, with open interest above $100 million. Binance held more than 30% of activity, and the Hyperliquid market run by Entropy had about $36 million in open interest. These synthetic derivatives settle in cash and do not give buyers equity in Anthropic.

Last week, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Hugging Face leaders told the United Nations that AI’s pace of development requires more international coordination. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump rejected calls to slow AI development and said he wants to rebrand the technology as 'super intelligence'.

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