OpenAI Revenue Run Rate Nears $70 Billion, Lifting Oracle and AI Infrastructure Bets

1 hour ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Oracle's $664B RPO signals AI compute demand, indirectly supporting tokens like RENDER.
  • Bullish AI-infra headlines may lift FET sentiment, but OpenAI's $12.3B loss is a risk.
  • Traders should watch if AI-crypto valuations can justify Bain's $6T 2031 revenue hurdle.

Oracle stock ORCL gained nearly 4% on Tuesday after a report said OpenAI’s annualized revenue run rate had climbed to nearly $70 billion, supported by strong momentum in enterprise-focused sales. According to Axios, OpenAI’s annualized revenue run rate has increased by more than 70% since the beginning of the third quarter, while business-to-business revenue more than doubled over the same period.

The reported growth lifted Oracle and other stocks linked to OpenAI, outweighing news that OpenAI had scrapped a release plan for its next-generation AI model. Oracle has a $300 billion cloud-computing deal with OpenAI, which is central to the software company’s AI infrastructure push. Gil Luria, managing director at D.A. Davidson, said Oracle’s fate is largely tied to the success of OpenAI, which represents around half of its compute backlog. He added that OpenAI’s accelerating growth reinforces its ability to meet expectations for compute capacity.

In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Oracle booked more than $30 billion in additional AI cloud contracts, lifting its remaining performance obligations to a record $664 billion, an increase of $209 billion from a year earlier. Management expects around half of that RPO to convert into sales over the next 36 months, creating a substantial multi-year revenue pipeline. Oracle also said it delivered 850 megawatts of additional data-center capacity and more than 300,000 GPUs since the end of the fiscal fourth quarter. AI infrastructure utilization remained high at 97.9%, and GPUs that were up for renewal were renewed or resold at an average 20% premium.

Oracle upgraded its fiscal 2027 guidance for total revenue to at least $90 billion, representing 34% year-over-year growth. The wider hyperscaler landscape is spending heavily on AI infrastructure. Capital expenditures from Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta and Oracle are expected to reach $780 billion this year, almost five times the amount spent in 2023. Bain & Company estimates that AI-related computing demand must reach $6 trillion in annual revenue by 2031 to justify the infrastructure build-out.

OpenAI’s revenue momentum is a sharp turn from late summer. As of August 18, OpenAI’s revenue had risen only 18% between the first and second quarters, from $5.7 billion to $6.7 billion. On the consumer side, ChatGPT booked more new revenue in the third quarter alone than it managed across all of 2025. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s operating loss reportedly widened to $12.3 billion in the second quarter, up from $9.3 billion in the first. OpenAI also cut its GPT-6 Sol and Luna API prices by at least 50% below their predecessors, while rival Anthropic trimmed Opus 5.5 pricing the same day. Anthropic reached an annualized run rate of about $65 billion in July and has been linked to a valuation nearing $2 trillion as both companies move toward public listings.

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