Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer of Maelstrom, has reiterated his forecast that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, with the strongest advance expected in late 2027 or early 2028. The thesis, reported by financial news account Walter Bloomberg on X, links the projected rally to stress in debt-funded artificial intelligence infrastructure rather than to a broad technology earnings collapse.
Hayes’s argument centers on an AI infrastructure bubble in which data-center revenues may fail to justify massive borrowing. He expects financial pressure to emerge when earnings cannot cover the sums committed to construction, computing equipment, electricity connections, and cooling systems. Comparing the financing risks with earlier market crashes, Hayes described the boom as a “credit story like 2008 and not an earnings story like 2000.”
In an August report, Hayes had already predicted that announced AI capital spending growth would begin slowing in the second half of 2027 and become clearer in 2028. He also said Bitcoin could trade between $60,000 and $70,000, with possible downside toward $50,000, before an eventual advance toward $1 million.
Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok estimated the AI ecosystem could support more than $2 trillion of additional investment-grade debt through 2030, with more than $1 trillion potentially moving into private placements, infrastructure lending, equipment financing, and project-specific structures. Apollo also said AI-related borrowing already represented nearly 40% of longer-duration investment-grade corporate bond supply.
In his “Safety First” essay, Hayes outlined two possible U.S. policy responses: Washington could become a “compute buyer of last resort” or provide financial assistance to insurers facing losses on AI-linked debt. In either case, he expects the response to increase money supply and support Bitcoin prices.
U.S. insurance regulators are tightening private credit reporting. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners has adopted changes effective at year-end 2026 to improve reporting of insurers’ private credit holdings, amid concerns about valuations, lending standards, and sector exposure.
