Solana entered October trading near $119.50 to $120, adding roughly 1.25% on the day and extending a nearly 20% gain from September. The token has built a steady uptrend from August lows near $75, with buyers repeatedly testing the $120 to $122 area. Analysts see a decisive daily close above that zone as opening a path toward $140 to $145, and potentially $150. On the downside, support is seen at $105 to $110, while the former $95 to $100 resistance zone now acts as a broader safety net.
Institutional demand remains a central catalyst. U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded a $188 million weekly net inflow during the week of September 21-25, led by Bitwise's BSOL with about $128 million, or 68% of the total. Friday alone brought roughly $87 million. Inflows continued on September 28 and September 29 with $12.7 million and $5.4 million respectively, before a small $12.5 million net outflow on September 30. Total cumulative net inflows now stand near $1.63 billion. Since July 13, these products have accumulated approximately 4.37 million SOL worth around $450 million, marking 11 consecutive weeks of net inflows.
Market participants are split on the near-term direction. Analyst Ali Martinez has pointed to strong institutional absorption as a reason SOL could target $150. Trader Gordon argues that dips are for buying, favoring accumulation near $100 and selling above $500. Scient expects a sell-off at the start of October, planning a short around $120-$121 and a long near $110. Meanwhile, an anonymous whale opened a $20.2 million long position on SOL with a liquidation level near $98; the address reportedly has a 100% win rate across four trades and about $4.7 million in profits.
Technical signals are more cautious. Solana's exchange netflow shows inflows exceeding outflows, indicating more coins moving to centralized platforms and potentially raising immediate selling pressure. One RSI reading has surged past 70 into overbought territory, while the daily RSI in another data set sits at 63.22 with MACD momentum cooling slightly. At the same time, the network's Alpenglow consensus upgrade is now live on public test networks, targeting transaction finality of about 150 milliseconds versus roughly 12.8 seconds today. Solana has also reduced its target slot time from 400 milliseconds to 250 milliseconds as part of its push for faster transactions.
