Zcash Retreats 21% From September Peak as ETF Outflows Pressure One-Year Rally

1 hour ago 2 sources negative

Key takeaways:

  • ZEC's ETF outflow and Bitget hack exposure may delay institutional trust despite still-bullish long-term structure.
  • ZEC's 64% volume spike during decline suggests distribution, not accumulation, favoring short-term bearish bias.
  • Watch $1,400 support; a daily close below $1,233 could trigger deeper ZEC correction.

Zcash (ZEC) extended its pullback on Thursday, trading near $1,333.50, down 7.29% on the day and roughly 21% below the $1,698.00 high registered in late September. The privacy-focused asset had previously surged about 253% from a $480.72 base, and its latest decline is testing key technical levels after a nearly one-year uptrend.

Grayscale's Zcash ETF, ticker ZCSH, recorded a $30.25 million net outflow on Sept. 30, bringing cumulative net inflows since its Aug. 25 launch to almost $268 million. The fund also completed a 3-for-1 share split that morning. Meanwhile, 24-hour trading volume in ZEC jumped 64.48% to approximately $1.87 billion, with market capitalization falling 9.59% to about $24.27 billion.

Broader market conditions offered little support, with Bitcoin spiking to $85,600 after softer-than-expected PCE inflation data before giving back gains, the 10-year Treasury yield closing at 5.29%, and CME FedWatch odds for an October Federal Reserve rate hike falling below 50%.

Sentiment is also being tested by fallout from the Bitget hack, which stole about $387 million based on updated estimates that include transfers on Zcash and Tron blockchains. Blockchain investigator ZachXBT flagged 2,746 ZEC, worth roughly $3.9 million, moving from hack-linked addresses into Zcash's shielded pool on Wednesday. Although the amount is relatively small, it adds pressure while ZEC tries to build a stronger reputation among institutional investors.

On the chart, the Relative Strength Index sits near 50.2, cooling from overbought levels, while the Average Directional Index remains elevated at 52.0, reflecting the strength of the prior trend. The 50-day exponential moving average is still above the 200-day EMA, keeping the broader structure bullish for now. Analysts are watching the $1,400 support zone and the $1,360–$1,380 area ahead of a possible test of the $1,233 golden zone. A daily close below that level would deepen the correction, while a recovery above $1,410.72 could put ZEC back on track.

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