Real Vision founder Raoul Pal argued that Bitcoin has fallen too far behind the Nasdaq and gold, leaving room to “play catch up,” but he stopped short of issuing a full bullish signal. In a Cointelegraph Trade Secrets interview published on Oct. 3, Pal described Bitcoin’s relative performance as oversold, while noting that rising bond yields and a dollar he views as too strong prevent a complete green light.
The core of his thesis centers on dollar borrowing. When companies earn local currency but repay dollar-denominated debt, a stronger dollar raises their repayment burden, potentially reducing investment capacity. Pal cited a 2018 Bank for International Settlements working paper that linked dollar strength to weaker cross-border lending and lower emerging-market investment. Easier financing conditions, he said, could give investors more capacity to buy risky assets, including Bitcoin.
'If they can engineer the dollar lower, then we get a green light for further movement in crypto,' Pal said. However, he cautioned that the reason for dollar weakness matters. A weaker dollar accompanied by easier borrowing and stable credit would support recovery, while a dollar decline driven by a U.S. growth scare and tightening credit could still pressure Bitcoin.
Pal also addressed the AI trade, saying his preferred outcome is broader monetary and financing relief. If that does not develop, he views AI trading sideways as a second-best scenario that could give investors room to reconsider crypto allocations. He warned that an AI collapse caused by financing stress would be a different and more negative setting.
He distinguished between narrower U.S. liquidity measures and broader bank lending, pointing to the BIS global liquidity data and differences between the ICE U.S. Dollar Index and the Federal Reserve’s broad dollar index. For confirmation, he said he would watch dollar trend, Treasury real yields, financing conditions and Bitcoin ETF flows.
Bitcoin’s price action on September 30 illustrated the importance of confirmation. A brief rally above $85,000 after softer inflation data faded below $84,000 as Treasury yields recovered. Pal’s comments are informational and do not guarantee Bitcoin’s future performance.
