BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom investment director Arthur Hayes says he is not trying to predict whether the artificial intelligence bubble will burst. Instead, he is positioning in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) for what he expects to be a future wave of multi-trillion dollar bailouts and monetary expansion.
In posts on X and in a subsequent interview, Hayes said he does not know whether the AI market will eventually collapse, and he is not betting either way. He added: 'I'll invest in the possibility of future multi-trillion dollar bailout packages.' He maintained a bullish stance on Bitcoin and Ethereum, arguing that potential stimulus policies could alter liquidity conditions and support cryptocurrency prices.
The investor compared the current AI investment frenzy to the high-risk mortgage bubble that caused the 2008 financial crisis, stating that the AI bubble could be even larger. He said, 'Money printing continues and will accelerate. I think AI is a bigger bubble than the 2008 mortgage crisis and will trigger a massive bailout.' According to Hayes, about two-thirds of the AI investment cycle has already been completed, and the real turning point could arrive at the end of 2027 or beginning of 2028.
Hayes highlighted that large AI companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic are committing to hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars in computing capacity, but it remains unclear whether they will be able to repay these investments. He pointed to Anthropic as an example, arguing that when training and inference costs are included, roughly $3 is spent for every $1 of revenue. He also said the US debt structure is unsustainable, and officials may eventually have to sacrifice currency value to keep bond yields under control, while a crisis in France's debt market could trigger another large bailout. Under his scenario, a financial collapse in the AI sector could cause short-term market turbulence, followed by liquidity injections that provide a strong source of capital for cryptocurrency markets.
