Bitcoin extended its multi-day decline on October 15, plunging to a monthly low of $80,200 as macroeconomic and technical pressures rocked risk assets. The drop marked the first test of the $80,000 support in nearly a month.
Equity turmoil in Asia set a fragile tone. Japan's Nikkei 225 slumped roughly 6% in 24 hours, falling from 68,375 to 64,130 before a slight rebound to 64,685. South Korea's KOSPI performed even worse, tumbling from 6,800 last Thursday to 5,550, down more than 18.5% over five days and nearly 8% in a single session. Bitcoin fell twice during Asian trading hours this week as the regional sell-off deepened.
Macro pressure intensified after September CPI came in hotter than expected. Headline inflation rose to 3.7% year-over-year from 3.4%, with monthly consumer prices up 0.6%. Gasoline prices jumped 9.1%, while core inflation printed at 2.6% annually. Following the data, CME FedWatch showed the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the October 28 FOMC meeting rising above 50%, up from roughly 20% earlier in the week. “This means that inflation is broadening out, something that is not a good omen for the Fed and would raise the probability for an increase in rates at the end of the October FOMC meeting,” said Raymond James Chief Economist Eugenio Aleman.
US 10-year Treasury yields firmed and the dollar strengthened, further weighing on demand for cryptocurrencies. ETF flows reversed sharply: US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $261.46 million after $175.62 million in inflows the prior day. Liquidations climbed to over $960 million in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $883 million. Ethereum bore the largest share of liquidations at about $290 million and fell toward $2,300.
Technically, Bitcoin's four-hour chart showed a bearish continuation setup. After a decline from roughly $86,000 to $81,000, BTC consolidated in a bear flag and then broke below the channel's lower boundary near $82,371. It traded below the 20-period EMA at $83,196, the 50-period EMA at $83,384, and the 200-period EMA near $82,046. With the 14-period RSI at 43 and pointing lower, the measured-move target sits near $78,218. Buyers would need to reclaim $83,196–$83,384, then push through $84,000 to weaken the bearish structure.
