US equity futures were mixed on Friday, but Treasury yields eased after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal another rate increase at the central bank’s October 27–28 meeting. Dow futures rose about 145 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures added 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.23%. The 10-year Treasury yield traded near 5.09%, well below the week’s 5.30% peak, easing some pressure on risk-asset valuations.
Warsh said he would not prejudge the upcoming policy decision, reinforcing market expectations for a pause after September’s rate increase. CME pricing placed the probability of another October hike at about 15%, while a Wall Street Journal survey showed similar odds near 14%. Later in the session, the CME FedWatch tool indicated an 85% probability that rates would remain unchanged. Speaking at an IMF event in Bangkok, Warsh said the US economy remained resilient and was benefiting from an AI-driven investment boom, but also noted that stronger spending was contributing to inflation.
At the open, the Dow jumped 242 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.11% and the Nasdaq fell 0.28%. Tesla rose about 0.8% after unveiling a redesigned Roadster featuring SpaceX-developed thrusters, though production is not expected until 2028. In contrast, AI-linked names faced renewed selling: CoreWeave dropped 6.6%, with its bonds still yielding above 15%, while Nebius Group and Iren fell more than 5%. Micron Technology lost 3.6% and Intel dropped 2.18%, partly on concerns about Chinese competition in memory chips. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell 1.7% and was down 8.9% for the week.
David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said the pullback in memory chip stocks and CoreWeave’s debt concerns gave investors a reason to reduce exposure to AI-linked companies. BNP Paribas analyst Daniel Wang said CoreWeave still had substantial revenue visibility, but sustainable cash generation remained the key test. Investors also monitored September industrial production, regional bank earnings from Truist, M&T Bank, Citizens Financial and Regions Financial, and other movers including Varonis Systems, Netflix and Anthropic’s reported IPO valuation concerns.
For crypto markets, the lower probability of an October Fed hike and the pullback in Treasury yields may provide a mildly positive macro backdrop, but persistent inflation, elevated energy prices after the US-Iran war and unresolved AI credit risks could keep risk appetite selective and volatile.
