Gold jumped back toward $4,200 on Friday 16 October 2026 after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal an October rate hike, saying in Bangkok that he does not 'pre-judge' meetings. Spot gold traded near $4,178.50 an ounce at 06:57 UTC, up from about $4,148 on Thursday afternoon, while the ICE US Dollar Index fell roughly 0.7% to 101.82 after a 102.58 close.
Speaking alongside IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, Warsh restated his commitment to price stability but gave hawks no new ammunition. He added that he was 'over-scarred' from the global financial crisis, a comment FXStreet's Dhwani Mehta interpreted as neutral with a risk-aware tilt. The remarks mattered because September US inflation had come in hot: annual headline CPI rose 3.7% against a 3.6% consensus, while producer prices were up 6.3% year-over-year. Fuel was the main driver, with petrol prices up more than 34% annually and fuel oil nearly 75% higher.
After the CPI release, CME FedWatch briefly priced an October hike at 41.5%; subsequent PPI data and Warsh's comments pushed expectations back toward a hold, with some readings around 33.8% and Friday commentary suggesting an October move was close to priced out. The Fed raised its funds rate to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September, and the next FOMC decision is due 27-28 October. The base case now appears to be a hold this month and one hike in December, though traders may price more than two hikes in the first half of 2027 if inflation keeps surprising higher.
Technically, gold faces resistance at the 21-day simple moving average around $4,201, the 100-day at roughly $4,242, and the 50-day near $4,332; support sits near $4,000. For crypto markets, the softer dollar and fading near-term hike bets may ease macro pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets, but sticky inflation and a possible December hike remain headwinds.
