US Treasury yields edged higher early Friday after Thursday’s sharp safe-haven rally pulled the 10-year note back below 5% for the first time in a month. The benchmark 10-year yield rose 2 basis points to 4.9779%, while the two-year yield added 2 basis points to 4.6647% and the 30-year yield climbed to 5.3007%.
Thursday’s move marked a 17-basis-point drop in the 10-year yield to 4.972%, its largest single-day decline since March 10, 2023. David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said the bond rally “looks like a flight to safety” during a selloff across US tech.
Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett said they remained “tactically risk-off” until mid-November, expecting further declines in stocks, Treasury yields and the US dollar before markets find a floor. They see the 30-year yield moving toward 5% and the dollar index falling below 100.
Oil prices compounded inflation worries. Brent crude surged 3.7% to $117.37 a barrel, its highest level in nearly six months, while West Texas Intermediate rose 4.45% to $103.91. Gains followed Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, Saudi Aramco’s evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters, an oil spill off the UAE coast, and the worst month for Strait of Hormuz shipping attacks.
Higher energy prices threaten to keep inflation elevated and could limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease monetary policy ahead of next week’s interest-rate decision. Friday’s flash S&P Global PMI readings for manufacturing and services are expected to provide further clues on US economic activity and inflation pressures.
For digital assets, the mix of rising long-term yields, elevated oil prices and cautious risk positioning creates a hostile macro backdrop. Crypto markets are highly sensitive to liquidity expectations, so any signal that the Fed will keep rates restrictive for longer could add pressure to Bitcoin and other major tokens.
Elsewhere, SpaceX shares rose on reports it is pursuing access to at least 80,000 cellular sites to expand Starlink into a nationwide wireless service, while Anthropic is partnering with Hg to launch an AI consultancy in Europe. SK Hynix also shelved plans for a potential US IPO of its Solidigm unit, citing capital market conditions.
