Brent crude futures traded at $114.60 a barrel at about 10:50 am Beijing time on Monday, down $2.15 or 1.8% from Friday's $116.72 settlement, which had been the highest since April. West Texas Intermediate fell 2.1% to $101.10. The pullback came after Brent gained about 6% last week on fears that attacks on Saudi Arabia could disrupt regional energy supplies.
Diplomatic efforts offered some relief: Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran on Sunday to reduce tensions with Washington. At the same time, the Houthis claimed over the weekend that they struck Aramco's Yanbu facility, the Rabigh refinery and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed damage, and the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted ballistic missiles and drones aimed at several locations. No hit on oil infrastructure has been independently confirmed.
Abu Dhabi's Murban crude moved higher, rising about 3% to above $118, roughly $3.40 above Brent. Murban loads at Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz, so its premium indicates that physical buyers are paying up for barrels that avoid both Hormuz and Red Sea route risk. Vanda Insights placed Brent in a $110–$120 trading range, with risks tilted upwards near $114. Goldman Sachs has outlined a $120-a-barrel escalation scenario if attacks on Middle Eastern shipping intensify, while its base case sees Brent at $90 by year-end.
The oil market is also closely tied to Federal Reserve expectations. The Fed is expected to hold rates on Wednesday, and CME FedWatch prices a December hike at about 75%. September PCE data is due Thursday. A hawkish Fed plus a hot inflation print could weigh on demand and push Brent toward the $108 bear level, while confirmed damage at Yanbu or lower Hormuz flows could open a move toward $120.
