Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize near $78,000 after a difficult stretch, but two analysts are outlining sharply different short-term paths that share a common warning: the next rally may not be the start of a new bull market.
Macro analyst Henrik Zeberg argues Bitcoin could still climb toward $115,000, roughly 47% above current levels, before a broader bear market resumes. He calls the potential move a “fool’s rally” and frames it as a Wave B bounce within a larger corrective structure. In Elliott Wave theory, such rebounds can look like a fresh uptrend while still resolving lower, which is exactly the bull trap Zeberg expects.
Zeberg’s monthly chart work points to a challenged long-term rising trend line and a multi-year negative divergence in the RSI, suggesting momentum has not kept pace with price across successive cycles. After a bounce toward $100,000–$115,000, he expects a much larger Wave C decline, with a long-term “best case” zone near $16,000 and even lower targets. If Bitcoin instead breaks above that area and produces sustained higher highs, the bearish thesis would become far harder to defend.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, offers a somewhat different scenario. He sees a short-term correction toward $70,000 before a recovery to $90,000 by the end of the year. Thielen says weakening confidence in the US Treasury market could push capital into Bitcoin and gold, and he expects the Federal Reserve may adopt a more cautious policy stance in early December, potentially creating more market-friendly conditions for a year-end rally. He also expects Bitcoin to deliver stronger gains than Ethereum.
For now, Bitcoin remains below $80,000 amid elevated interest rates, weaker risk appetite and the aftermath of the Binance hack.
