Rocket Lab shares climbed 11.51% to $59.18 during Monday's regular trading session as investors positioned for the company's third-quarter results after the market close. The advance extended Friday's 15.39% rally, which left the stock at $53.07, and marked a strong recovery from Thursday's $45.99 close. The two-day move returned attention to the company's delayed Neutron rocket program and whether CEO Peter Beck will provide a more specific first-launch target.
Analysts expect Rocket Lab to report revenue near $257 million for the third quarter, up about 65% year over year, within management guidance of $250 million to $265 million. The company previously posted second-quarter revenue of $234 million, a 62% increase, and disclosed a record contracted backlog of $2.36 billion, up 137% from the prior year. Rocket Lab also said it had booked more than $1 billion in new launch and space systems contracts during the third quarter as of early August. Fourth-quarter guidance is expected around $265 million, which would bring annual revenue to roughly $959 million and potentially above the $1 billion milestone if the company beats estimates.
The key uncertainty remains Neutron. In October, Rocket Lab pushed the inaugural launch into 2027 after manufacturing problems produced voids in the carbon-composite forward dome of the first-stage tank. Beck said inspectors found small air pockets in the carbon-fiber layers, and the company adjusted its manufacturing process. A replacement forward dome must still be manufactured, inspected and tested before full first-stage assembly. Beck declined to commit to a new date, saying: I'd rather show you real-time progress than give you a date that I might have to walk back. He expects the first manufacturing and inspection steps to be completed before the first quarter of 2027, with remaining assembly and testing during that quarter.
Analyst targets have moved in both directions. Citizens' Trevor Walsh cut his target from $130 to $90, KeyCorp's Michael Leshock lowered his from $135 to $100, and Bank of America reduced its target from $110 to $100. In contrast, Needham reiterated a buy rating with a $120 target, Citigroup maintained an outperform rating, and Cantor Fitzgerald sees the stock rising to $120. Technical analysis ahead of earnings highlighted a possible head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline near $58.20. The stock has retested that neckline, leaving traders watching whether it breaks down toward $44 or rebounds toward $60.
Beyond Neutron, Rocket Lab's $8 billion deal to acquire Iridium remains a major strategic topic. The acquisition is intended to create a vertically integrated space company spanning spacecraft manufacturing, launch services and satellite communications. Investors will also listen for updates on contract execution, margins and the timeline for converting the company's large backlog into revenue.
