Bitcoin is hovering near $74,783 after a decline from roughly $85,000 in early October, with on-chain data showing smaller holders have been exiting positions. According to Santiment Intelligence, the number of non-empty Bitcoin wallets has fallen by approximately 108,700 since October 16, when the network reached 59.99 million non-empty wallets.
Analyst Darkfost identified $74,600 as the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level for Bitcoin’s second wave and warned that a failure there could extend the decline toward $71,000. The 200-week moving average is nearing $70,000, converging with the 0.5 retracement; a move below that zone would create a weaker market structure. The RSI was approaching 30, and Bitcoin had lost its 200-day moving average, with four consecutive daily closes below that average.
On the four-hour chart, the latest candle opened at $74,434.37, reached $74,908.99, and closed at $74,782.82, gaining $342.15 or 0.46%. The RSI stood at 43.59, below the neutral 50 mark but above its 40.10 moving average. The MACD histogram was positive at 28.63, while the MACD line at -571.06 remained above the signal line at -599.69, though both were still negative.
Santiment noted that a lower wallet count does not automatically mean Bitcoin’s utility is shrinking, especially if BTC holds between $74,000 and $75,000. Exchange supply has also declined to about 1.28 million BTC. The firm highlighted a potential recovery above $78,000 to $80,000 alongside continued wallet losses. Immediate support sits at $74,000, followed by $72,000, with resistance at $76,000, then $78,000 and $80,000.
